AI and Data Centres Drive Skanska’s 2026 Market Outlook

The US construction market is entering a "cautious transition" defined by a sharp divide between booming tech infrastructure and cooling traditional sectors.

According to the Winter 2026 Construction Market Trends Report from Skanska, the industry is grappling with significant volatility in material pricing and a tightening labour market.

“As we begin 2026, the US construction market is navigating a period of cautious transition, with modest overall growth expected amid high borrowing costs, material inflation and persistent labour shortages,” says Steve Stouthamer, Executive Vice President of Project Planning at Skanska USA Building.

The metal price spike

A primary concern for the sector is the rapid inflation of essential materials, driven largely by tariff exposure and high demand.

Steel prices have seen a dramatic uptick, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil up nearly 45% since mid-2025. This has pushed wide flange steel up by US$100 per ton since October.

Aluminium has seen an even more drastic shift. The Midwest Premium, a regional surcharge including tariffs, surged from US$500 to US$2,200 per tonne. With less than 50% of aluminium used in the US produced domestically, the industry remains highly sensitive to trade policies.

Copper also remains under pressure, with wire pricing up 25-30% year-on-year due to the electrification of the grid and AI-related projects.

A tale of two markets

Steve noted that while the overall outlook is one of modest growth, the momentum is far from even.

“While high-growth sectors such as data centres, semiconductor and life science projects continue to drive activity, traditional residential and commercial markets remain softer, highlighting the uneven momentum shaping the year ahead,” Steve added.

Total construction starts rose 2.6% in December 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$1.24tn.

However, this was bolstered primarily by a 16.3% jump in nonbuilding starts, such as highways and bridges. In contrast, while non-residential building starts rose 4% by dollar volume, they actually fell by 6% in terms of square footage, suggesting that higher costs are masking a dip in physical volume.

Labour and future outlook

The labour market remains a bottleneck for many firms. In December 2025, the industry lost 11,000 jobs, bringing the total annual gain to just 14,000, a marginal 0.2% increase.

Despite this, the unemployment rate in the sector sits at 5%, down slightly from the previous year.

Looking ahead, Skanska predicts that nonresidential construction will accelerate in 2027. This growth is expected to be fuelled by the current planning phases in healthcare, recreation and the ever-expanding data centre market.

Conversely, cyclical segments like retail, office and manufacturing are expected to remain softer in the immediate term.